Sunday, November 12, 2017

BAJA 1000 LIVE! Baja Weather Service UPDATES!


Onshore flow will prevail through next weekend. Onshore flow will weaken into Monday with an inland warming trend through Monday and Tuesday...then cooling into Thursday as onshore flow strengthens with gusty west winds for the mountains and deserts. The Sea of Cortez will experience gusty winds to La Paz, through the period. 

Onshore flow will weaken for next weekend with a warming trend. There are small chances for light precipitation for late Thursday into early Friday...but any precipitation of significance is expected to remain north of Point Conception. There will be some high clouds at times with patchy night and morning coastal low clouds and fog extending locally inland. && 

.FOR EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA... .SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)... A low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast will weaken and move inland on Monday as another low pressure system moves into a position off the Pacific Northwest coast on Tuesday. This will maintain onshore lower level flow and dry southwest flow aloft across Southern California. High pressure aloft across northern Mexico will strengthen slightly into Monday bringing an inland warming trend into Monday with slight cooling on Tuesday. Night and morning coastal low clouds and fog will remain fairly patchy and not extend much farther inland than the western valleys with the marine layer becoming gradually shallower into Tuesday. There will be some patchy radiational late night and early morning fog in lower lying coastal and valley areas. There will also be some high clouds at times as the trough of low pressure to the north draws subtropical mid and high level moisture northward into Northern Baja California. && 

 .LONG TERM (Wednesday through Saturday)... A low pressure system off the Pacific Northwest coast on Wednesday will weaken and move inland on Thursday and Thursday night with the GFS a little faster and the ECMWF a little slower and more amplified. Broad high pressure aloft then returns near the West Coast for Friday into next weekend. As the trough of low pressure moves inland to the will bring stronger onshore across Southern California with cooling into Thursday...then slow warming for Friday and greater inland warming on Saturday. There will also be stronger and gusty west winds as the trough moves inland...mainly Thursday and Thursday night. That trough of low pressure will also draw additional subtropical moisture northward towards Southern California with most precipitation of significance remaining north of Point Conception with small chances for light precipitation to the south and east...mainly late Thrusday and early Friday. && 

.AVIATION... 121040Z...SCT-BKN cloud layers AOA FL150 with unrestricted VIS through Monday morning. Baja Mexico Coasts...A few patches of stratus with bases near 1000-1500 ft MSL may develop over western portions of San Diego County. KSAN and KCRQ could have a CIG at times through 16Z, but should mostly remain FEW-SCT. Otherwise, local BR with 3-5 SM vis with isolated spots 1 SM or less in the valleys through 15Z. Patchy stratus with bases near 700-1100 ft MSL may develop late this evening, but confidence is low in timing and location as it will likely be patchy again. && 

.MARINE... Combined seas of 5-6 ft with 6-7 second period waves will create rough conditions today. In addition, northwest winds gusting to around 20 kt are possible each afternoon and evening through Tuesday. 

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